Of Wisconsin

Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin. Where to begin?

A brief preface:

The current breakdown of the Wisconsin State Legislature:

Assembly:

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 38
Independents: 1 (Bob Ziegelbauer, who caucuses with the GOP)

Senate:

Republicans: 19
Democrats: 14

It should be noted that any vote on a bill concerning the budget has to meet a quorum of at least 20 senators in order to be eligible to be voted on.


Here's how I see the whole cluster**** that's rapidly wrapping up its initial phase:

Just-elected Wisconsin governor Scott Walker along with a newly minted Republican majority in both the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate (first time since 2007 that Republicans have held both chambers simultaneously; oddly enough, the ratio of Republicans to Democrats is almost identical now to how it was in 2007, with one independent in the Assembly who caucuses with the GOP, instead of one extra Dem) decided to try and tackle the $3.6 billion budget deficit that they were elected, in part, to deal with.

Sound good, right? Elected officials doing what they were elected to do....what a concept. Just a matter of a lot of hot air being exchanged between both parties before some compromise that cuts some spending, but safeguards all (or most) of the politicians' special interests is reached, right? Not exactly.

The problem is, Governor Walker and his supporters in the Legislature decided that among other things, the extensive collective bargaining rights of public-employee unions was part of the problem of the budget. Uh oh....they decided to target one of the two untouchables (the other current one being Wall Street). IMO, the left side of the political spectrum (assuming a two dimensional spectrum, which I find inherently flawed, but that's a discussion for another time), in general, holds unions (public-sector unions in particular) just as holy as the right side holds corporations and Wall Street (gross generalizations for both sides, I realize, but it's generally effective for outlining this whole thing, imo).

The bill introduced to the Legislature was a combination of actual budgetary material (i.e. spending cuts, and other budgetary maneuvering), and the collective bargaining thing. Because they were one bill, it required a quorum of 20 votes in the Senate in order to be voted on. Wisconsin Democrats said that they were willing to make concessions concerning the budget, but not the collective bargaining of public-sector unions. To the best of my knowledge, they haven't changed that position. I have no knowledge of the extent to which Republicans were willing to negotiate the budgetary aspect of the bill. But one thing was and is clear: neither side is going to budge on the collective bargaining thing. The bill passed the Assembly on a party line vote, and moved to the Senate.

Being outnumbered in the Senate, Democrats had little to no power to force changes on the bill, and so, to make sure the bill wouldn't get the necessary quorum, all 14 Democratic senators packed up and left the state (going to Illinois), leaving Republicans 1 vote short of the quorum they needed to vote on (and pass) the bill.

What followed was a three week saga of foot stomping, crying, and general bitching on both sides. To quote a favorite radio show host, it was a lot of BMW (Bitching, Moaning, Whining). Pro-union protesters flooded the Capitol building and the surrounding area numerous times (and some hoisted signs about Governor Walker that would've made the crazies in the Tea Party blush). Then, with rumors of the return of the MIA Senate Dems in the air, Senate Republicans decided to split the bill in two: one bill for the budget, and one bill for the collective bargaining. This meant that, because collective bargaining is not a direct budgetary issue, the 20 person quorum is not needed. The Senate promptly passed the collective bargaining bill after 30 minutes of discussion. Because the bill was different than what the Assembly passed, the Senate bill went back to the Assembly to be voted on again. Predictably, it passed. It now awaits Governor Walker's signature, which is expected to come very soon. The Senate Democrats are still MIA, but are expected back soon.

My opinions:

First off, the Senate Democrats abandoned their posts, pure and simple. It's a gross dereliction of duty that shouldn't go unpunished (and in fact hasn't...among other things, each MIA senator is being fined daily, and their paychecks have been frozen until they return). They were elected to be part of the governing process....not to all but shut it down for the better part of a month. Shame on them.

Second off, what did the mass exodus really accomplish? Nothing. Yet, at least. Senate Dems, imo, have gambled that their dereliction of duty will be forgotten in light of the bill that the GOP just passed. It's very similar to the national GOP stance during the health care debate in Congress in that respect. Obviously, Congressional Republicans didn't skip town during the HC debate, but they gambled that their nay vote would be vindicated later b/c they figured (correctly it seems) that the HC bill would be unpopular enough to propel them to greater heights. Will the Wisconsin Dem's strategy pay off?

It's difficult to say, to be honest. Multiple polls from a variety of companies have shown fairly consistent opposition to the collective bargaining cuts. However, it must be pointed out that collective bargaining powers as broad as they are in Wisconsin (or, rather, were, come Governor Walker's signature) exist only in 26 states (25 after Walker's sig). 12 other states have weaker collective bargaining agreements, and the other 12 have no collective bargaining agreements whatsoever. So, given that, it's not like Governor Walker is taking Wisconsin into unknown territories, much less turning the state into a "third-world-style oligarchy" (contrary to what NYT Hack-in-Chief, Paul Krugman believes). Along the same lines, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels did almost exactly the same thing 6 years ago, and, by all accounts, Indiana's fiscal position is pretty decent (comparatively), and Daniels remains very popular in Indiana. Is that a perfect comparison? Obviously not. Wisconsin is a much bluer state than Indiana. Daniels can get away with a lot more right-wing stuff than Walker ever will be able to. But, it does show that Wisconsin Dems have made a significant gamble. Should the same or similar fiscal benefits as Indiana's start rolling into Wisconsin as a result of the recently passed bill (or, even if there is no direct causation between the two, all Walker and other Wisconsin GOP-ers will have to do is sell economic gains as being caused by the collective bargaining bill, which, fair or not, tends to be fairly easy, from what I've seen in my years of following politics), Senate Dems will be in a very sticky place indeed.

Onto the GOP. Although the Wisconsin GOP position concerning unions (especially public sector unions) is not unique to them (see Christie, Chris, Governor, New Jersey), the way they passed the bill is (somewhat), and it leaves a sour taste in my mouth. It's similar shenanigans to what Congressional Dems pulled in getting Obamacare passed. It amounted to legislative skulduggery meant to pass the bill by any means, regardless of opposition or traditionally accepted methods of the legislative process. It's the same technically allowed, but morally dubious shit that's plagued American politics for far too long. It's the same 'Ha, I won, you [the opposition party] do what we want' attitude that soured my opinions of both Bush and Obama. I tend to agree that public sector unions are adversely affecting state economies (particularly their general refusal to pay a penny (in Wisconsin, for example, and, until last year, New Jersey) for the lofty pensions many of them get). But, the way the Senate GOP went about changing the system is just wrong. It violates promises made by Governor Walker that he wouldn't support exactly just what happened. It violates the rights of the minority to challenge the bill (30 minutes of discussion. I call bullshit....even with almost all opposition absent.)

The Wisconsin GOP have taken a very similar risk to what I talked about the Wisconsin Dems risking. They're betting that the passed bill will prove to be either: a) Effective as a cost reducing measure, or b) Popular enough to defend in future debates...which will probably mean that condition a) will have been met by that time. It's the same bet the Congressional Democrats took with health care, essentially. And we all know how that turned out at the ballot box. The difference being that the Wisconsin GOP actually read the bill before they passed it (yay....cheap shot at Obamacare).

Of course, this is but the first stage. In the coming days, Governor Walker will sign the bill. The MIA Dems will return. The Wisconsin government will go back to normal. But, the collective bargaining rights thing is not done. Not by a long shot. The next step is to court. And, as the various judges weigh in on the subject, Wisconsin Dems will aim to regain their majorities in the Legislature and the Governor's mansion. Presumably (and assuming that the courts uphold the current bill), should the Dems be able to to that, we will end up revisiting this whole thing all over again somewhere down the line.

The war over the powers of public unions has just begun. We've already seem supreme acts of ass-hattery on both sides. I cringe to think of what's to come.